Long before Republicans like Allen West and Marco Rubio won their respective races on November 2, other aspirants for elected office were already doing the necessary legwork behind the scenes to position themselves for runs at both State and Federal offices in 2012. With Republicans sitting comfortably on supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature and awaiting the opportunity to work with Governor-Elect Rick Scott and cabinet (who are all Republicans), Republicans are avoiding complacency and eyeing potential seat pick-ups in 2012. These seats in question will be in play, assuming that the anti-Big government/Obama sentiment holds through the next election cycle, which we fully expect.
At the Federal level, there are potential candidates who are sitting back and waiting for next year’s re-districting to potentially open up seats that would be favorable to the GOP or make previously “safe” seats for Democrats competitive. Contrary to the so-called ‘Wizards of Smart’ (hat tip to El Rushbo) that are already assuming where Florida’s two new congressional districts will be located, chances are they won’t be placed in Southeast Florida, in spite of its population growth. With the GOP controlling the bounds of redistricting, it’s a safe bet they won’t do anything that harms Republican-held Congressional seats like Allen West’s seat in District 22, Tom Rooney’s in District 16, David Rivera’s in District 25, or skew state house and senate seats that overlap those Congressional Districts. As it stands right now, Congressional Districts 17,19, 20, and 23 strongly favor Democrats, and Districts 22 and 25 were considered toss-up seats before this past election cycle.
There is the possibility that the GOP could broker a deal with the Democrats to which could solidify existing GOP Congressional seats as well as Democrat seats like District 19 and 23. Two new congressional seats will be drawn- one of the two new seats could be located in Southwest Florida, and the other could split up existing Congressional District 2, creating two GOP-friendly seats. It’s also possible that no deal will be brokered and strong Democrat seats like District 17, 19, and 20 could be even made stronger by giving back portions of surrounding Districts that lean ‘D’, while taking ‘R’ leaning areas out of either Districts 17 or 19 and redrawing them into part of District 20. We’ll have to wait to see what the ‘powers that be’ will do to redraw the ‘battle’ lines that were last drawn in 2000.
There is also a lot of buzz going around throughout political circles as to who will be announcing their intentions to seek higher office for the 2012 election cycle. At the Senatorial level, GOP strategists that are in ‘the know’ believe that Senator George LeMieux will definitely run against Senator Bill Nelson (D) in 2012. Some other well known names being seriously mentioned are Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R), Congressman Connie Mack, Governor Jeb Bush, and Congressman Vern Buchanan.
At the the Congressional level, Republican Karen Harrington is said to be strongly considering another run in District 20 against Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. Harrington garnered almost 40% of the vote in her loss, and she has already been contacted by the NRCC and both State and National groups about helping in her efforts. Were she decide to run again, her candidacy could prove to be a more formidable one with a strong base of support in an otherwise tough Congressional District.
Other names to watch are Businessman Brian Reilly from Hollywood, and former U.S. Senate candidate Alexander Snitker. Reilly was the front runner in the Republican primary race for Congressional District 20 before withdrawing due to personal issues. Reilly quickly received national media attention and was mingling with the ‘who’s, who’ of the political world. Sources say that Reilly is weighing both his congressional and his state options, but is said to not be interested in running against Harrington. Snitker was the Libertarian candidate that ran for the U.S. Senate against Marco Rubio, Congressman Kendrick Meek and Governor Charlie Crist. Snitker proved to be an energetic and resilient opponent, but failed to receive any serious financial backing. Several people, including myself, say that Snitker could be a formidable congressional candidate if he were to change his party affiliation form Libertarian to Republican. Snitker made overtures to many Republican voters, but that appeal only went so far, as his party affiliation limits his broader appeal.
17 Responses to “The Jockeying for 2012 is Underway…”
Something has to be done to de-gerrymander Corrine Brown’s district. And, hopefully make it possible for someone who speaks somewhat intelligible American English to be elected.
I second the motion of 1776Liberal. Why isn’t District 3 on the redristicting list? If I’m not mistaken, it was Gerrymandered back in the Clinton ’90s to do exactly what it has done fo all of these years. Time to change it. You shouldn’t have a district in Jacksonville that runs like a snake all the way to Orlando. Can anyone tell me why? I can tell you.
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Hope they give us back to a Republican District. Living where you have no representation stinks!
I am considering a run at #19, Ted Deutch needs to get the pink slip
Completely missing from this overview of redistricting is the impact of Florida constitutional amendments five and six, both of which were approved on November 2. In my view, it will be impossible to envision the current political layout remotely resembling anything that could pass judicial review under the new standards.
Congressional and state legislative boundaries must conform as closely as possible to existing political and geographic lines — which means municipal, county, circuit, and possibly even judicial “district” lines (five districts in Florida). District lines may not be drawn to favor any political party. They must be “fair.” How will these standards affect redistricting? The only thing that is certain is that the map will be drastically redrawn. The tweaks described in this article are highly unlikely or, if they happen, will fail constitutional muster and we will be left with the Florida Supreme Court determining political boundaries.
One thing is for sure, it will be very very interesting to watch unfold.
@Scorpio
Obviously you don’t fully understand how the political process really works, when it comes to reapportionment. You will know what I mean next year.
scorpio0679 is absolutely spot on. We won’t have the new districts nailed down until any number of litigative challenges have been resolved by the Supreme Court, most members of which were appointed by Republican Governors. Re-districting is a tome-sensitive issue, and the “fun” will begin when the existing districts are re-drawn, presumably sometime in early 2011.
@Spiffin
The lines are already being drawn as we speak. These lines will get scrutinized in late May-Florida Session ends in late May.
As far as the legal challenges, go back and read what was written-negotiation will most likely take place with the Democrats to solidify certain districts, and concede others to them.
It may be a little naive to assume that the FL Supreme Court will strike down the redistricting amendments simply because a majority of the justices were appointed by Republican Governors. Keep in mind that one of those ‘Republican’ Governors wasn’t very conservative.
PLEASE take me out of Dist 20!!
It’s almost as embarrassing as being from Vermont!
They need desperately to take me out of the district of the Wicked Witch Wasserman-Schultz, who I despise to high Heaven. It is embarrassing to be represented by the most liberal woman in Congress behind only Nazi Pelousy. Her district is already so Gerrymandered, it ought to be illegal, and probably is or would be if the courts weren’t controlled by Liberals. Please either Gerrymander me out of her district or at least draw the lines so that a Repub can kick her tail the heck out of Congress.
PS to the person above: You might be alone in Weston and I might be alone in Plantation, but we are together in being screwed and stuck in 20 with Wasserman or Schultz or whatever the heck her name is.
ALEX SNIKNER AND MIKE MCGALISTER ARE TWO PEOPLE TO KEEP YOUR EYE ON MIKE ALREADY HAS THE SUPPORT OF MOST ALL OF THE FLORIDA TEA PARTYS AS DOES ALEX SNIKNER.
SO SHARK TANK STAY WITH THESE TWO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It doesn’t matter if the Republicans make a deal with the Democrats to make certain seats safe. Anybody can sue. And any lawsuit can allege that a district is “unfair” or is drawn to “favor or disfavor a political party”, even if it uses existing political and geographic borders. The liberals want to take the redistricting power away from the Republican Legislature, and an activist judge using Amendments 5 & 6 is their best shot.
Jeff,
You seem to want your cake and to eat it too. You would like for the lines to be drawn so that you are in a GOP leaning district, but you think that gerrymandering should be illegal. You fail to see that the Broward County is a heavily Democratic county, and if the lines were not gerrymandered, there would likely be no Republican districts there.
You also blame the liberals for gerrymandering. Who drew the current lines? Are you forgetting that it was the Republicans in the legislature who drew them?
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[...] Shark-Tank breaks down the drama: At the Federal level, there are potential candidates who are sitting back and waiting for next year’s [...]