by Lone Shark
The latest Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll of Florida has Mitt Romney with a 6-point lead over President Barack Obama 51-45. The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted by the Mason Dixon polling firm.
“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.
“Will it be five points? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”
Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.
Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.
The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.
When we look back on this election, we’ll likely see that the final major turning point in the campaign was Romney’s decisive victory in the first presidential debate- the clear majority of Florida polls taken subsequent to that debate have had Romney in the lead anywhere from three to seven points.
And folks, before you start popping the champagne corks or deciding that it’s not necessary to go vote, one word of advice for you- don’t.